San Francisco Travel Association has released its updated 2024 and 2025 Visitor and Lodging Forecast at the annual Visitor Impact Summit.
Hosted by the Hotel Council of San Francisco and San Francisco Travel, the summit was held at the W San Francisco and attended by over 300 San Francisco tourism leaders and businesses.
This year, a projected 23.22 million visitors are expected to inject $9.24 billion into the city’s economy. In 2023, San Franciso received 23.1 million visitors, and visitor spending reached $8.8 billion. (Visitor spending does not include meeting planner and exhibitor spending).
While visitor arrivals and spending are expected to show modest improvement, 2024 hotel occupancy is forecasted to be 62.8%, down 2.1% compared to 2023. The city’s hotels are projected to have an average daily rate (ADR) of $224.72 and a revenue-per-available room (RevPAR) of $141.23 in 2024, which represent a -7.7% and -9.7% year-over-year change, respectively.
“Going into 2024, we knew this would be a challenging year due to a lighter convention schedule at Moscone Center. We did not anticipate that domestic leisure travel would continue the decline experienced since Q2 of 2023. The trend of U.S. residents vacationing abroad due to the strength of the dollar has had a greater impact on lodging than expected,” said Brett Allor, San Francisco Travel’s Vice President of Market Strategy & Research.
This year the city’s convention center will host 25 events, accounting for nearly 413,000 room nights. In 2023, Moscone Center hosted 34 events, which contributed 618,962 room nights.
“We have faced unprecedented challenges as a community in 2024, and the metrics indicate that. However, we have been working together to put our community first, and by doing so we have made some progress,” said Alex Bastian, President and CEO of the Hotel Council of San Francisco. “Next year appears to have a better outlook and it will give us opportunities to shine bright on the world stage. If we continue to work together, we will accomplish great things for our community and our city.”
Travel 2025 Forecast
The Association expects improved tourism and lodging gains in 2025, driven by a more robust convention calendar and international leisure travel. Visitor volume is forecasted to reach 23.9 million, and visitor spending is projected to be around $10 billion in 2025.
Moscone Center is set to host 29 events, accounting for over 590,000 hotel room nights – a 30% increase compared to 2024.
Conventions are a key economic driver for the city. With the stronger event calendar, hotel occupancy is forecasted to increase to 64.1% in 2025. ADR is forecasted to rise by 3.7% to $232.99, and RevPAR is expected to see a 5.8% increase, reaching $149.43 in 2025.
“We are on the right track next year with the return of larger rotational events at Moscone Center. These will boost our visitor economy and drive more business to our restaurants, cultural institutions and local businesses,” said San Francisco Travel President and CEO Anna Marie Presutti. “Other bright spots include the major sports events taking place in San Francisco in 2025 and 2026, starting with the NBA All-Star Game in February. High-profile events such as these place the city on the global stage and will attract sports fans from around the world.”
“As we continue our comeback, we are seeing more positive momentum with an increase in conventions next year, including the incredible news that Dreamforce is staying right where it belongs – here in San Francisco,” said San Francisco Mayor London Breed. “Next year we will have the NBA All-Star Game, a new WNBA franchise, and other major events that are going to bring more people and excitement here. Our goal is to keep making San Francisco, including our Downtown, an exciting, beautiful, welcoming and safe City that welcomes visitors back again and again.”
Presented by Expedia, the Visitor Impact Summit was made possible with support from sponsors Expedia, W San Francisco, Encore AV, Entire Productions, and Miles Partnership.
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